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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.